Chances

Interesting maths there, Darren: 102 (BTO list) - 100 (RSPB list) = 2... but 17 (what BTO have over RSPB) - 12 (vice versa) = 5... something doesn't quite add up ;) So here's the definitive list of blockers The Lodgers have over the White Nuns.

1. Barnacle Goose - up to 2 feral birds regular until late July last year, no sign since. We're hopeful of a reappearance but not guaranteed.

2. Osprey - Lakes or no lakes, this is a tough one; only on 4/8 Nunnery listers' lists on Bubo Listing (click here then type 'Nunnery', set bottom radio button to 'Combined' then click 'Show list'). 25% chance at best.

3. Merlin - A few around in the Brecks each winter so there's an outside chance but not on any Nunnery listers' lists!

[Oystercatcher - already OTL]

4. Ringed Plover

5. Golden Plover

6. Dunlin

7. Green Sandpiper - We're very limited for wader habbo; Green Sand is a good bet in late July/early August but Dunlin and Ringed Plover only on 5/8 lists, whilst Golden Plover is only on 4/8 lists - no records for TL88 during the Atlas period!

8. Woodlark (STA) - A lot harder than you'd think; depends on fly-overs / distant singing birds in next few weeks. Only on 5/8 lists.

9. Sand Martin - Ought to be straightforward but never common here.

10. Waxwing - My integrity was tested not once but 3 times in early January; almost certain I had small groups over early morning but always going away and no calls heard... integrity in tact but glaring hole in the list and we're running out of time!

11. Wheatear - Not annual but on 7/8 lists and with intense observer coverage I'm hopeful!

12. Raven - Still extremely scarce in E Anglia hence not on anyone's lists to date. On a par with Merlin...

13. [Coué's] Arctic Redpoll - No chance; we've done everything we can for this one but the wintering finches are drying up rapidly.

14. Common Crossbill - Ought to be straightforward but never common here.

15. Corn Bunting - Not on any Nunnery listers' lists; another one we can forget about.

So in short, 1, 7, 9 and 11 are decent prospects, with Wheatear the most difficult of that quartet. Of the rest, Osprey and Woodlark are the only ones we can realistically hope for.